sa MARKET UPDATE

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Electricity Prices

In October 2025, South Australia’s electricity market remained generally moderated thanks to high renewable penetration and battery support, although some volatility persisted. Average wholesale prices were lower than winter peaks, supported by strong midday rooftop solar and wind generation. However, evening demand periods remained sensitive, as solar output declines and wind variability can temporarily push spot prices higher. Gas and coal-fired power stations continued to provide reliable base-load supply, ensuring system stability.​

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Generation Mix

South Australia’s electricity generation in October came from gas, coal, wind, and solar, with renewable sources contributing approximately 55–60% of total supply. Rooftop solar remained a strong contributor during the day, while wind generation continued to be variable.

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Key factors influencing supply and prices during the month included:

 

• Torrens Island Power Station Unit 2 continued scheduled maintenance in early October, limiting gas-fired generation temporarily.

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• Local network constraints added pressure during high-demand periods, particularly in Adelaide and regional centres.

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• Wind generation fluctuations caused short-term price spikes, particularly during evening peaks when output dipped.

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• Rooftop solar output helped reduce prices during daylight hours, but sharp evening demand once solar declined contributed to higher spot prices.

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• Gas-fired generation met demand during low renewable output, adding cost pressures due to higher fuel costs.

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• Battery storage assets, including Dalrymple and Lake Bonney, continued to stabilise the grid by storing excess renewable energy during high output and discharging during peak demand.

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Futures Pricing

We observed that forward electricity prices for South Australia in October 2025 showed moderate volatility:

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• Base month futures fluctuated by approximately ±10–13%, tracking general market trends.

• Evening peak prices remained elevated, reflecting periods of low wind generation, reduced late-afternoon solar output, and high demand during evening peaks.

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Overall, the market showed slightly more stability than September, though exposure to variable renewable output and network constraints remains significant.

 

what is means for your business

Energy costs in South Australia are generally more stable than other states, thanks to strong renewable generation and battery support. Midday rooftop solar helps reduce daytime pricing, but businesses can still face short-term price spikes during evening peaks, particularly when wind and solar output drops. Maintenance at key gas generators and local network congestion adds some uncertainty, meaning that relying solely on spot market prices can expose businesses to sudden cost increases.

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Maintenance at key gas-fired generators and local network congestion adds further uncertainty, meaning that relying solely on spot market pricing can expose businesses to sudden and significant cost increases. For large energy users, this volatility can directly impact operational budgets, cash flow planning, and long-term procurement strategies. Businesses with substantial evening or continuous energy consumption, such as manufacturers, data centres, and food processing facilities, are particularly at risk, as they may face higher costs during periods of constrained supply.

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If your business does not yet have a strategy in place, we can help. Contact us for a free bill check or to discuss a tailored energy procurement plan.