QLD MARKET UPDATe
Electricity Prices
In August 2025, wholesale electricity prices in Queensland rose by approximately 6% compared to July. Strong air conditioning demand during hotter-than-usual days increased load, while periods of low wind generation in southern Queensland reduced supply-side flexibility. At the same time, planned outages at coal units in the Bowen Basin tightened the market, amplifying the impact of high demand on spot prices.
Generation Mix
Queensland continues to evolve its generation mix, with several key developments:
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Renewables share: Around 25–28% of electricity generation now comes from solar, wind, and hydro, while coal remains the dominant source. The state is targeting 50% renewables by 2030.
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Infrastructure developments: We are seeing new solar and wind projects progressing, along with upgrades to the high-voltage transmission network. However, occasional congestion can limit how much renewable energy reaches consumers.
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Operational impact: During August, higher-than-usual demand combined with scheduled coal maintenance contributed to short-term price volatility.
Futures Pricing
We have observed that forward electricity prices for Queensland in August 2025 showed moderate volatility:
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Base month futures fluctuated by roughly ±7–9%, tracking the average price trend.
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Evening peak prices spiked up to 130% above average, reflecting periods of high demand or reduced generation availability.
what it means for your business
In Queensland, we recognise that energy costs are particularly affected by high air-conditioning demand during hot weather, low wind generation in southern regions, and scheduled outages at coal-fired generators. This mix can cause rapid swings in wholesale prices, creating challenges for operational planning and cost management. We work with businesses to manage these risks by timing energy use strategically, leveraging renewable generation, and implementing procurement strategies that smooth costs.
If your business does not yet have a strategy in place, we are here to help. Contact us for a free bill check or to discuss a tailored energy procurement plan.
ELECTRICITY FUTURE PRICING CHARt
On August 21, 2025, The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) released its 2025 Electricity Statement of Opportunities report, a 10-year outlook on the investments needed to maintain reliability in the National Electricity Market (NEM). The report raised concerns about potential blackouts in Queensland during the upcoming summer. The report identifies a "reliability gap" in electricity supplies, highlighting short-term challenges that could affect energy stability. The Queensland Government is urged to provide more clarity on its energy roadmap to address these concerns and ensure a reliable energy future.
The AEMO's findings suggest that the state's energy system may face increased pressure during peak demand periods, particularly if renewable energy generation is lower than expected. Factors such as extreme weather events and unexpected outages could exacerbate these challenges, leading to potential supply shortages.
In response to these concerns, the Queensland Government is being urged to expedite the development of its energy roadmap and provide clearer guidance on strategies to enhance grid reliability. Stakeholders are calling for measures that include investment in energy storage solutions, grid infrastructure upgrades, and demand-side management initiatives to mitigate the risk of blackouts and ensure a stable energy supply for all Queenslanders.
Energy Tariff Certainty for Business: New Queensland Protections Announced
The Queensland Government has introduced new consumer protections that will also benefit businesses with smart meters. Under proposed regulations, customers, including small businesses, who were automatically moved to time-of-use tariffs without consent will now have the option to revert to flat tariffs. This builds on a nation-leading initiative prohibiting retailers from changing tariffs without informed consent, addressing concerns around unexpected “bill shock” that can impact operational costs.
Time-of-use tariffs can offer cost savings, but only if businesses fully understand their energy usage patterns. The reforms ensure businesses have clearer control over their energy costs and can choose the tariff structure best suited to their operational needs. This measure complements other cost-of-living initiatives, such as energy rebates, reinforcing the government’s commitment to providing both financial relief and transparency in energy pricing.
Overall, these protections help Queensland businesses manage energy costs more effectively, reduce exposure to unexpected charges, and plan energy consumption strategies with greater certainty.