TTEG COMMENTARY
As outlined in the latest market update below, electricity futures across the states have stabilised following a brief period of volatility in June. Improved wind generation, easing demand, and fewer unplanned outages have helped reverse the recent price uptrend, particularly in New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria. However, South Australia remains an exception, with continued price pressure due to low wind conditions and higher gas reliance earlier in the month.
This contrast underscores the importance of monitoring both national trends and local generation dynamics when planning your energy strategy.
Energy procurement is ultimately about timing and risk.
Delaying your decision, especially in a market prone to sudden swings, can leave your business exposed to sharp cost increases and limited contract options.
At Trans Tasman Energy Group (TTEG), we take a strategic, forward-looking approach. With over 25 years of experience, we help businesses plan 18 to 24 months ahead of contract expiry, giving us time to track the market, assess your options, and act with confidence.
If you are unsure of your current position or do not yet have a strategy in place, we are here to help. Contact us for a free bill check or to discuss a tailored energy procurement plan.
WHOLESALE MARKET UPDATE
Market Overview: Stability Returns
Energy futures markets have steadied following recent volatility. Increased wind generation, lower gas and hydro dispatch, and balanced operational demand have contributed to a calmer outlook. No major baseload outages have been reported, maintaining system stability across most states.
Futures Snapshot & Generation Outlook
South Australia (SA):
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CAL27 and CAL28 futures climbing due to recent low wind, higher gas usage and evening volatility.
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Evening volatility raised the Cumulative Price Threshold by ~$250,000 by the AER.
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Wind dropped early July; gas supplied most power during outage.
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Wind returned on 18th of July.
South Australia's forward electricity prices have risen amid early July’s low wind conditions, increased gas reliance, and heightened evening volatility, though recent wind recovery is expected to ease market pressure.
New South Wales (NSW):
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Longer-term outlooks remain favourable.
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No major movements in CAL26–28 despite a high-impact outage on 21st of July.
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Currently stable at 8.5GW of baseload, with a 3GW drop forecast between September and November.
New South Wales’ electricity market remains stable with a positive longer-term outlook, despite a recent outage and an expected short-term drop in baseload capacity heading into spring.
Queensland (QLD):
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Longer-term outlooks remain favourable.
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A high-impact outage on 21st of July failed to impact futures outcomes significantly.
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Approximately 1GW of baseload has returned, bringing total to 8GW.
Queensland’s energy market outlook remains steady, with minimal futures impact from recent outages and a temporary increase in baseload capacity, though a decline is expected later in the year.
Victoria (VIC):
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CAL27 and CAL28 are now equal but still trade at a large discount to CAL26.
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Wind Output recovered on 19th of July, after a low wind period in the previous week.
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Yallourn 3’s return means most generation is now back online.
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Scheduled baseload is forecast to decline from 5GW to ~3GW by November.
Victoria’s forward pricing has stabilised as wind output recovers and major generation returns online, though the outlook remains cautious with scheduled baseload capacity expected to tighten heading into summer.
Western Australia (WA):
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Battery storage in SWIS is growing fast with ~500 MW online and 728 MW committed
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Renewables supply ~33% of WA’s electricity, led by rooftop solar
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A small reliability shortfall is forecast for summer 2025–26 but is improving.
Western Australia’s energy market remains steady, with futures pricing showing minimal volatility and strong wind and solar output continuing to ease reliance on gas generation.
Drivers of Recent Market Movements
Early July brought a wave of cold, calm, and cloudy weather conditions across the National Electricity Market (NEM), significantly reducing wind generation and driving up peak heating demand. This shift in weather led to a noticeable change in the generation mix, with thermal generation stepping up as wind output collapsed and battery storage underperformed.
The tightening supply-demand balance triggered a surge in spot price volatility, with a spike in events exceeding $10,000/MWh. Several major generators were also offline during this period, including Bayswater 2, Eraring 4, Gladstone units 1 and 2, and Yallourn 3, further adding to the strain on the system.
New South Wales experienced a particularly sharp demand spike, recording its highest winter energy demand in 15 years. The extreme pricing environment and market uncertainty prompted some retailers to temporarily withdraw live offers, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to both weather-driven demand and generation availability.
Conclusion
While the market has entered a quieter period, outlooks remain sensitive to wind performance, gas/hydro reliance, and scheduled outages, particularly in NSW and VIC. SA continues to reflect the highest volatility risks due to its reliance on wind and gas.
ELECTRICITY FUTURE PRICING CHARTS
Impact of Solar Feed-in Tariff Changes on Businesses
From 1 July 2025, electricity retailers in Victoria gained increased flexibility to set solar feed-in tariff rates for excess electricity exported to the grid, replacing the previous regulated minimum rates.
This change allows retailers to offer more competitive and innovative tariff options, including time-varying rates that better reflected market conditions.
For businesses with solar systems, this deregulation creates opportunities to maximise returns on excess solar generation but also introduces variability in feed-in payments.
While self-consumption of solar power remaines the most cost-effective approach by reducing reliance on grid electricity, businesses need to evaluate their energy use and feed-in options carefully to optimise savings.
The Essential Services Commission continues to oversee retailers to ensure fair terms, helping businesses navigate these changes with confidence.
New Victorian Energy Reforms Unveiled
The Victorian Government has unveiled a sweeping energy reform package aimed at reducing gas use, accelerating electrification, and lowering household energy bills. With gas supplies from the Bass Strait declining and prices rising, the state plans to reserve gas for industry by encouraging households to switch to electric appliances, mandating, for example, that gas hot water systems be replaced with electric alternatives from 2027.
All new homes and most commercial buildings will also be required to be all-electric from 2027. New minimum energy efficiency standards will apply to rental properties and public housing, and rebates will support upgrades. The reforms are expected to unlock 44PJ of gas annually by 2035, meeting 85% of industrial demand.
The government is also investing $9.5 million to help manufacturers pivot to efficient electric appliances. Energy groups broadly welcomed the changes for their potential to cut bills and free up gas for industry, though some called for broader reforms and flexibility for households with unique needs.
Victorian Government Introduces New Framework for Renewable Energy and Transmission Planning
Victoria is rolling out a new approach to electricity grid planning through VicGrid’s Victorian Transmission Investment Framework. This framework supports the shift from retiring coal plants to renewable energy by guiding the development of renewable energy zones and transmission infrastructure with a focus on early community and Traditional Owner engagement.
The framework introduces fairer community benefits, improved coordination for renewable projects, and investor certainty. Legislative changes passed in May 2024 require the first Victorian Transmission Plan by 31 July 2025, with further reforms starting November 2025.
This new strategy ensures timely, coordinated investment in infrastructure that meets Victoria’s renewable energy goals while considering social, cultural, and environmental factors.
Victoria Stays On Course with 95% Renewables by 2035
Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio has reaffirmed the state’s commitment to reaching 95% renewable energy by 2035, with ageing coal plants to close as scheduled and new transmission links to be delivered despite some delays.
In a recent interview, she emphasised that renewables are now the most reliable and cost-effective energy source, highlighting Victoria’s success in meeting previous targets and confidence in achieving future ones.
D’Ambrosio also outlined plans for a mix of offshore and onshore wind, solar, and storage projects, and reinforced the state’s leadership in electrification, including policies to phase out gas in new homes. She acknowledged community feedback on the draft renewable energy zone plan and confirmed it remains open to consultation.
Alongside this, new reforms aim to secure gas supplies for industry, ease the transition for households and businesses, and help reduce energy bills across the state.
QLD Energy News Updates
Queensland Tightens Renewable Energy Rules, Raising Investor Concerns
Queensland’s energy and environmental regulatory landscape is entering a period of transformation. With a firm commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, the Queensland Government is reviewing its emissions targets and expanding its legislative framework to manage the complex interplay between renewable energy development, environmental protection, and community expectations.
A more stringent and community-focused regime is emerging as the state attempts to balance climate goals with energy reliability and social licence. Central to this shift is the Planning (Social Impact and Community Benefit) and Other Legislation Amendment Bill 2025, which introduces mandatory Social Impact Assessments (SIAs) and Community Benefit Agreements (CBAs) for all large-scale solar and wind projects. These must be submitted before a development application can be considered “properly made.” The changes also make all solar farms impact assessable, triggering public notification and third-party appeal rights, and place new responsibilities on local councils to report on CBA contributions.
While the Queensland Government says these reforms are about restoring transparency, certainty, and community confidence in renewables, industry leaders, such as Clean Energy Council and the Queensland Renewable Energy Council, have expressed concern they may delay approvals, deter investment, and create legal uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the Government’s use of discretionary planning powers to reject the 450MW Moonlight Range Wind Farm, despite it having previously received conditional approval, has underscored growing concerns around regulatory certainty. Citing inadequate community consultation and failure to meet new planning benchmarks, the Minister’s decision marks the first refusal under the amended wind farm regulations. With no ability to appeal a ministerial call-in, developers face elevated risk and are being urged to strengthen early engagement strategies.
The Queensland Productivity Commission is reviewing legislated emissions reduction targets, with further clarity expected by the end of 2025. The state government has signalled support for smaller-scale pumped hydro, expanded gas exploration, and new gas peaker plants as part of its plan to ensure grid reliability. A newly established Gas and Sustainable Fuels division will also oversee hydrogen development.
As Queensland shifts toward a more regulated and community-driven approach, project proponents must prepare for a more complex approvals process, one that prioritises long-term community benefit, robust environmental stewardship, and alignment with Queensland’s evolving energy strategy.
Stanwell Battery Project Reaches Key Milestone with First Tesla Megapacks Delivered
The first shipment of Tesla Megapack 2XL units has arrived at the Stanwell Battery project site near Rockhampton, marking a major step forward for Queensland’s 300MW, four-hour-duration battery energy storage system.
A total of 324 Megapacks will be delivered by September 2025, with commissioning set to begin in November and the battery expected to supply power to the grid from May 2027. Part of Stanwell’s push to diversify into cleaner, more flexible energy, the project is being delivered by Yurika and will support around 80 construction jobs locally.
Queensland Unveils Energy Roadmap in 2025–26 Budget
The Queensland Government’s 2025–26 Budget outlines a $5 billion investment in state-owned energy assets as part of a five-year Energy Roadmap aimed at delivering affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy.
Key initiatives include major funding for CopperString ($2.4 billion), pumped hydro, battery storage, and new gas peaker projects, supporting long-term cost relief and energy security.
For businesses, this strategic investment means improved energy reliability, downward pressure on electricity prices, and greater certainty for future planning.
Additionally, the Supercharged Solar for Renters Plan offers rebates for landlords, supporting energy-efficient rentals and reducing power costs for tenants, many of whom are small business operators.
SA Energy News Updates
EnergyConnect Powers Ahead: Major Progress Linking South Australia to the National Grid
Transgrid and Elecnor Australia have completed over 70% of transmission tower construction on the eastern section of EnergyConnect, Australia’s largest energy transmission project, which will link New South Wales with South Australia and Victoria.
Stretching 700km, this critical infrastructure includes a 175km segment featuring innovative 500kV Danubio towers from Wagga Wagga to the new Dinawan substation near Coleambally.
With the 159km western section into South Australia already energised, the project is well advanced and aims to boost renewable energy flow and grid stability across states. More than 1,600 workers are on site, and over $255 million has been invested into regional and First Nations businesses, education programs, and local economic development.
As South Australia continues to play a key role in the nation’s clean energy future, EnergyConnect is cementing the region’s position at the heart of the renewable energy transition.
Thor Energy Confirms High-Potential Hydrogen and Helium Systems in South Australia
Thor Energy has reported exceptional natural hydrogen and helium results from its HY-Range project in South Australia, identifying concentrations up to 3,000ppm—around 6,000 times above atmospheric background levels.
The findings, which also include helium readings of up to 27ppm, strongly correlate with key geological structures and confirm the presence of active gas migration systems. Four priority zones have been identified—Mallala, Locheil, Crystal, and Mt Lock—for further exploration, with plans to increase sampling density and depth.
Located near key infrastructure, the HY-Range project positions South Australia as a potential leader in natural hydrogen, a low-cost, zero-carbon energy source, and helium, a critical industrial gas.
Thor’s progress, under new CEO Andrew Hume, highlights growing investor interest in clean energy minerals and supports South Australia’s role in advancing next-generation energy solutions.
NSW Energy News Updates
NSW Hydrogen Hubs Powering a Low-Carbon Future
The NSW Government is supporting the development of three strategic hydrogen hubs, in the Hunter, Port Kembla, and Moree regions, as part of its Hydrogen Strategy and Net Zero Plan. These hubs co-locate green hydrogen producers and users across industrial, transport, and energy sectors to reduce infrastructure costs, enhance energy security, and accelerate decarbonisation.
Backed by $109.3 million in initial funding, the initiative targets 700 MW of green hydrogen production capacity by 2030 and supports projects that are scalable and commercially ready.
A major milestone was recently announced for the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, with Orica securing up to $432 million from ARENA’s Hydrogen Headstart Program. This funding will support a 50 MW electrolyser at Orica’s Kooragang Island facility, replacing natural gas in ammonia production. The project is expected to cut emissions in hard-to-abate manufacturing sectors, support local jobs, and unlock export potential for low-carbon products. Funding will be delivered over 10 years, tied to hydrogen production milestones.
Together, these hydrogen hubs will produce over 6,800 tonnes of green hydrogen annually, supporting NSW’s 2035 emissions reduction target of 70% and its net zero goal by 2050.
NSW Approves $81M Bioenergy Plant to Power Greener Brick Production
The NSW Government has approved an $81.4 million bioenergy facility in Horsley Park that will supply renewable biogas to Austral Bricks, helping transition one of Australia’s largest brick plants away from fossil fuels.
Developed in partnership with Delorean Corporation, the facility will convert up to 150,000 tonnes of organic waste annually into green gas using anaerobic digestion, reducing landfill and carbon emissions.
The project supports more than 250 construction jobs and will power brick manufacturing for new housing developments across Sydney, aligning with NSW’s climate and housing goals.
OX2 Advances Solar and Battery Projects in NSW and Queensland
Swedish renewables developer OX2 is progressing two major solar and battery projects in Australia, with its 90 MW Summerville Solar Farm in northern NSW receiving final federal environmental approval. The project, including a 360 MWh battery and a $3.1 million community benefit contribution, is set to begin construction in 2026 and create up to 200 jobs.
Meanwhile, OX2’s Sunshine State Solar Farm in Queensland, featuring a 128 MW solar array and battery storage, has entered the federal environmental approval process.
Both projects were acquired from Esco Pacific and will include community engagement and benefit initiatives aligned with local council expectations.
WA Energy News Updates
AEMO Highlights Investment Opportunities in WA’s Evolving Energy Market
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has identified significant investment opportunities in Western Australia’s main power system over the next decade, according to its 2025 Wholesale Electricity Market Electricity Statement of Opportunities (WEM ESOO).
With around 1700MW of ageing coal and gas power expected to retire between 2027 and 2032, including Collie, Muja D, Pinjar, and Bluewaters, AEMO underscores the need for timely investment in new generation, long-duration battery storage, and transmission infrastructure to maintain reliability in the South West Interconnected System (SWIS).
While recent battery investments have eased reliability risks, AEMO forecasts a 50MW shortfall for summer 2025–26, and notes a growing pipeline of more than 1600MW in committed projects, plus 2300MW in proposed capacity.
These developments present strong opportunities for energy investors, developers, and infrastructure partners as WA transitions its power system for the future.
Carnarvon to Invest Up to $89M in Strike Energy to Support WA Gas Projects
Carnarvon Energy will invest up to $89 million in Strike Energy through a two-tranche placement, acquiring a 19.9% stake to support the development of Strike’s core gas projects in Western Australia.
The first tranche, worth approximately $52 million at $0.12 per share, is set to settle on 29 July. The second tranche, valued between $34–$36 million, is subject to shareholder approval at a meeting in September and includes a $10 million share purchase plan for existing shareholders, with a $5 million oversubscription allowance.
The funds will help advance key developments, including the West Erregulla and South Erregulla projects, extend Walyering’s life, and enable access to Macquarie facilities. As a result of the investment, Carnarvon has withdrawn a previously announced capital return.
WA’s Gas Strategy Raises Questions About Long-Term Opportunities
Premier Roger Cook has reaffirmed Western Australia’s commitment to the gas industry, following approval for the North West Shelf project to operate through to 2070. While this decision brings significant investment and supports WA’s position as a key energy exporter, it has also sparked concerns about long-term economic resilience.
Despite abundant local gas supply, households are facing rising prices, raising questions about whether the current system is delivering the best outcomes for the community. Some observers worry that continued reliance on gas may limit investment in emerging sectors like clean energy, green hydrogen, and advanced manufacturing, areas where WA has a strong natural advantage.
As global markets evolve, there’s growing interest in a more balanced approach that builds on the state’s strengths while preparing for a more diversified and sustainable future.
National Energy News Updates
AEMO Reports Record Growth in Renewable and Hybrid Energy Projects
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has reported a record year for renewable energy development, with 29 wind, solar, and battery projects totalling 4.4 GW reaching full output in 2024/25, nearly double the previous year.
Its latest Connections Scorecard highlights unprecedented activity across all project stages, including a surge in hybrid projects (solar or wind paired with batteries) and the growing adoption of grid-forming inverter technology to support system stability.
With 260 projects totalling 53 GW now in the connection process, and a sharp increase in registrations and application approvals, AEMO says these trends reflect strong investor response to changing market dynamics such as negative daytime pricing and aging coal generation. The momentum is expected to support Australia’s goal of achieving 82% renewable energy by 2030.
National Plan for Electrifying Road Freight Released
The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) has released the Electrifying Road Freight report, Australia’s first national blueprint for transitioning heavy vehicles to battery-electric. Developed by AECOM, the report outlines the infrastructure, energy demand, and system changes required to support the shift.
Urban freight is identified as the most electrification-ready segment due to smaller vehicles and shorter routes, while interstate and intrastate freight will need phased infrastructure investment. The report calls for up to 165 charging hubs, primarily located along national highways and freight corridors. While electricity generation is forecast to be sufficient, transmission and distribution networks require significant upgrades.
Coordinated planning, regulation, and pilot trials, such as those funded through ARENA’s Driving the Nation program, are key to enabling a scalable transition. Funded initiatives include projects by Centurion, Patrick Terminals, and ANC, which are trialling electric trucks and charging infrastructure in real-world operations.
National Gas News Update
Federal Government Launches Comprehensive Review of Australia’s Gas Market
The Australian Government has launched a comprehensive review of the national gas market to ensure the ongoing supply of secure, reliable, and affordable gas for domestic use. The review will evaluate current policy tools and regulatory settings, including the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM), the Gas Market Code, and the Heads of Agreement with east coast LNG exporters. Public submissions are open until 15 August 2025.
Key focus areas of the review:
Securing domestic supply: The review is exploring how best to guarantee adequate gas for Australian households and industry, particularly as new gas developments may favour export markets amid the shift to cleaner energy sources.
Keeping gas affordable: Ensuring fair and stable gas prices for both consumers and businesses is a central priority of the review.
Improving regulatory settings: A review of current frameworks will assess whether existing measures support an efficient and competitive gas market aligned with national interests.
Informing long-term strategy: Findings from this process will feed into the Government’s Future Gas Strategy, which defines the evolving role of gas in Australia’s energy system alongside renewables and emerging technologies.
Key instruments under review: Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM):
Empowers the Government to limit LNG exports if domestic gas supply is at risk.
Gas Market Code: Sets out rules to maintain a fair and transparent gas trading environment.
Heads of Agreement with LNG exporters: Establishes supply commitments from east coast LNG producers to the Australian market.
ACCC Gas Inquiry report
The national gas market review coincides with the ACCC’s latest Gas Inquiry report, which warns of potential gas shortfalls on the east coast from 2028 unless new supply is brought online. The report also highlights a weakening short-term outlook for 2025–2026, particularly if uncontracted Queensland LNG volumes are diverted to export markets. While there has been a recent easing in prices, the ACCC notes a decline in domestic supply and a limited number of longer-term contracts. The report underscores the need for regulatory reform to unlock undeveloped gas reserves and overcome investment barriers.
