​Futures Market Trends

After several months of steady decline, electricity futures prices across Australia have begun to rebound. As of early June, markets in all states, except South Australia, have shifted upward, signalling a reversal in the downward trend that began in January. Futures across Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland are moving in parallel, suggesting that recent market movements are driven more by national factors than state-specific issues.

​

These drivers include ongoing concerns over generator availability and climate-related inconsistencies in renewable output. Victoria, in particular, has seen the sharpest price movement, with CAL26 contracts rising approximately 10% in just two weeks.

​

Generation Constraints Drive Price Pressures

Victoria’s price surge is largely due to significant generation outages. Three of the four units at the Yallourn Power Station are currently offline, with staggered return-to-service dates stretching into late June. These outages, combined with colder weather, reduced wind output, and seasonal lows in solar generation, have increased reliance on more expensive hydro and gas peaking generation. As a result, Victoria has already recorded its third-highest annual gas generation volume on record.

​

Queensland and Victoria have both set new monthly records for gas demand, while wind generation has dropped to nearly one-third of seasonal norms, compounding supply challenges.

​

Comparing to Last Year’s Trends

Although the past two weeks have seen sharp upward spikes in futures pricing, it’s important to note that prices are still roughly in line with levels seen 12 months ago. In 2024, prices continued to decline through winter before rebounding in September due to planned generation outages and late-year contracting activity. A similar pattern may emerge again, with many retailers delaying procurement decisions until later in the year.

Current Generation Availability

• Victoria:

  • Yallourn Units 1, 3, and 4 are currently offline, with return dates ranging from mid- to late June.

• New South Wales:

  • Bayswater Unit 4 is back online and stable. Bayswater Unit 1 is now offline and expected to return on 22 June.

• Queensland:

  • Callide B2 returned to service on 13 June.

  • Gladstone Unit 1 and Tarong North remain offline, with returns scheduled for August and July respectively.

  • Millmerran Unit 2 will undergo maintenance later this month.

​

ASX Trading Dynamics Reflect Market Stress

ASX trading activity continues to mirror market volatility. Early morning cold snaps are pushing spot prices to near the market cap. Baseload coal generators are also strategically rebidding, withdrawing up to 1 GW from peak periods, further intensifying spot price spikes.

​

These dynamics are influencing daily ASX trading patterns. Prices are surging in early morning trades before tapering off by afternoon. For businesses seeking same-day energy quotes, it may be beneficial to delay requests until later in the day.

​

Gas Prices Fall Despite Demand Spike

Despite rising demand, wholesale gas prices have dropped significantly across all major regions in June:

• Victoria: Down ~17% to $9.93/GJ — the first sub-$10 figure since October 2023

• New South Wales: Down ~18% to $10.94/GJ

• Queensland: Down ~21% to $10.50/GJ

• South Australia: Down ~16% to $11.40/GJ

​

The drop is partly attributed to high storage levels at IONA, which entered June at 95% capacity following an unusually warm autumn. Forecasts suggest storage levels will remain elevated due to expectations of a milder winter.

​

Meanwhile, daily gas demand in Victoria has now exceeded 1,000 TJ for the first time this year, reflecting increased heating and generation loads.