QLD MARKET UPDATe
Electricity market conditions in Queensland remain generally favourable through June, with wholesale prices continuing to reflect a relatively well-supplied system supported by strong coal generation, high rooftop solar penetration, and stable overall demand conditions. Compared to recent years, pricing outcomes remain softer across much of the day, particularly during daylight hours when solar exports are at their peak and grid demand is reduced.
At the same time, Queensland continues to experience a clear split in pricing behaviour between daytime and evening periods. Midday prices are frequently suppressed by high levels of rooftop and utility-scale solar generation, while evening peaks continue to drive short, sharp periods of higher pricing when solar output drops away and demand shifts back to the grid. This structural pattern remains one of the defining features of the Queensland market.
Key Market Drivers
Current Queensland electricity pricing is being influenced by several key factors:
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Strong coal-fired generation continues to provide stable baseload supply and price support
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Very high rooftop solar penetration is driving frequent low and negative daytime pricing
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Evening peak demand remains the key driver of price spikes
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Gas-fired generation continues to operate as marginal firming during peak periods
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Interconnector flows with NSW provide additional flexibility but can tighten during peak demand periods
Overall conditions remain supportive, but pricing is increasingly shaped by intraday demand and solar-driven volatility.
Pricing Outlook
Forward prices remain relatively soft, but market attention is increasingly focused on peak period risk rather than overall average pricing.
As winter continues:
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Daytime prices are expected to remain suppressed due to strong solar output
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Evening peak periods will continue to drive the majority of price volatility
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Coal generation will remain the dominant baseload source underpinning system stability
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Gas generation will be required more frequently during tight peak conditions
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Short-lived price spikes are likely during high demand / low wind and solar periods
Despite this variability, overall system supply remains structurally adequate, with coal and solar continuing to anchor stability.
Supply Outlook – Generation & Infrastructure
Queensland’s supply outlook remains broadly sufficient, but conditions can tighten quickly when demand peaks or renewable output drops.
Key factors include:
Generator maintenance and availability:
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Around 4,000MW of scheduled and rotating outages across Queensland through June
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This reduces system flexibility during peak demand periods
Gas reliance during peaks:
Queensland continues to rely more heavily on gas-fired generation during high-demand intervals, particularly in the evening peak when solar output falls away.
Storage expansion:
Battery projects are gradually increasing across the NEM, helping to reduce volatility by shifting excess daytime solar into evening demand. However, the impact in Queensland is still developing compared with southern states.
Network constraints:
Transmission limitations and congestion into Queensland can limit import capability from other regions, increasing exposure to localised price spikes during tight conditions.
Overall, while baseline supply is adequate, Queensland remains more exposed to short, sharp periods of volatility than most other NEM states.
Network Tariff Changes from 1 July
Queensland network tariff changes effective from 1 July are prompting a growing number of businesses to review their electricity arrangements.
While wholesale prices often receive the most attention, network charges can represent a significant portion of total electricity costs. In some cases, being on an unsuitable tariff structure can have a greater impact on overall bills than movements in wholesale energy prices.
These changes make it increasingly important for businesses to ensure their tariff structure aligns with their actual usage profile, particularly where consumption is heavily concentrated in peak or shoulder periods.
What This Means for Businesses
With electricity prices currently at four-year lows and new network tariffs being rolled out across Queensland, now is an ideal time to review your electricity arrangements to ensure your business is on the most cost-effective tariff and the best available market rates.
While many businesses focus on securing competitive energy rates, network charges can account for a significant portion of an electricity bill. As a result, being on the wrong network tariff can erode savings achieved through energy procurement.
A review of both contract position and network tariff structure can help identify savings opportunities and ensure arrangements remain suitable ahead of upcoming contract cycles and winter volatility.
For businesses without an active energy strategy, now is a practical time to reassess positioning before peak seasonal conditions place further pressure on the market.
QLD ELECTRICITY FUTURE PRICING CHARt
Regional Electricity Tariffs Reduced from 1 July
Electricity customers in regional Queensland will see lower regulated electricity prices from 1 July, with household tariffs decreasing by 6.9% and small business tariffs falling by 8.1%. The changes are expected to save a typical household around $150 per year, while small businesses will also benefit from lower network and energy charges under regulated tariff arrangements.
The reduction reflects improved wholesale market conditions, lower energy procurement costs, and ongoing efforts to maintain electricity affordability in regional areas. As regional Queensland customers remain on regulated tariffs, pricing adjustments are reviewed annually and can differ from outcomes seen in the competitive retail market.
Key changes from 1 July:
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Household electricity tariffs reduced by 6.9%
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Small business tariffs reduced by 8.1%
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Typical households expected to save around $150 per year
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Applies to customers on regulated regional Queensland tariffs
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Reflects softer wholesale energy and supply costs
What this means:
The changes provide some relief from operating cost pressures at a time when energy remains a significant expense for many sectors. However, while tariff reductions are welcome, overall energy costs continue to be influenced by consumption patterns, demand charges, and network tariffs.
Businesses should also use this opportunity to review their tariff structure and energy usage profile, as tariff alignment and demand management can often deliver additional savings beyond the regulated price reductions.
Queensland Government warns retailers over electricity cost pass-through
The Queensland Government, led by Premier David Crisafulli, has issued a strong warning to electricity retailers regarding how wholesale cost reductions are being reflected in consumer pricing. The government indicated it will closely monitor retail pricing behaviour and take action against companies that delay or fail to pass through expected cost savings in full.
The announcement forms part of a broader push to improve transparency in the retail electricity market and ensure customers benefit from easing wholesale conditions where applicable. It also signals increased regulatory scrutiny on retailer pricing practices, particularly where margins or timing differences may prevent immediate flow-through of lower costs.
What this means:
The announcement signals a potentially tighter environment for retailers, particularly around how pricing changes are justified and communicated. While wholesale costs influence retail pricing, timing and margin structures can vary between contracts and providers.
Key implications include:
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Greater scrutiny of retailer pricing behaviour and contract transparency
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Potential for faster flow-through of wholesale cost reductions over time
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Increased importance of contract timing and negotiation strategy
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Stronger regulatory pressure on maintaining fair pricing practices
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Possible shifts in retailer competition as pricing strategies come under review
Queensland Energy Coal and Hydro Upgrades
The Queensland Government has allocated $520 million in the 2026–27 financial year to upgrade key state-owned generation assets, including the Stanwell, Tarong and Kogan Creek coal-fired power stations, as well as the Wivenhoe pumped hydro facility.
The investment is aimed at improving reliability, maintaining generation availability, and supporting energy security as the state continues to transition towards a more renewable electricity system. While significant investment continues to flow into renewable energy and storage projects, these upgrades recognise the ongoing role that existing dispatchable generation assets play in maintaining grid stability.
The funding is expected to support major maintenance works, asset life extension programs, and operational improvements across Queensland's generation fleet, helping to reduce outage risk and improve system flexibility during periods of high demand.
Key elements of the investment:
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$520 million allocated for 2026–27 across key generation assets
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Upgrades to Stanwell, Tarong and Kogan Creek power stations
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Investment in the Wivenhoe pumped hydro facility
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Focus on improving asset reliability and operational performance
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Support for ongoing energy security and system stability
What this means:
The investment is intended to improve generation reliability and reduce the likelihood of unplanned outages impacting supply conditions. Maintaining availability across these large generation assets helps support system stability during peak demand periods and periods of lower renewable output.
While the upgrades are unlikely to have an immediate impact on electricity prices, they provide greater confidence in Queensland's supply outlook and reinforce the role of dispatchable generation in supporting reliability during the energy transition.
Electricity Maintenance Guarantee Expanded to $1.8 Billion
The Queensland Government has increased funding for its Electricity Maintenance Guarantee to $1.8 billion over five years, up from the previously allocated $1.6 billion. The additional investment is aimed at maintaining and improving the performance of the state's electricity generation assets, ensuring they remain reliable as demand continues to grow.
The program provides funding for ongoing maintenance, refurbishment, and operational improvements across Queensland's publicly owned generation fleet. By supporting asset reliability and reducing the risk of unexpected outages, the initiative is designed to strengthen energy security and support the state's long-term electricity supply.
The increased commitment reflects the continued importance of maintaining existing generation infrastructure while Queensland progresses its broader energy transition and invests in new renewable and storage projects.
Key elements of the funding increase:
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Electricity Maintenance Guarantee expanded to $1.8 billion over five years
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Increase from the previous $1.6 billion funding commitment
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Supports maintenance and refurbishment of existing generation assets
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Aims to improve reliability and reduce unplanned outages
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Helps maintain system security during the energy transition
What this means
The increased funding is intended to support a more reliable electricity system by ensuring key generation assets remain available when needed. Improved asset performance can help reduce supply risks during periods of high demand and support overall market stability.
While the funding is not expected to directly reduce electricity prices, it reinforces the government's focus on maintaining generation reliability, which is a key factor in supporting energy security and reducing the risk of supply-driven market volatility.