QLD MARKET UPDATe
Electricity Prices
Queensland has started March with distinct market behaviour compared with earlier in the year. While daytime demand has eased with milder weather, the state continues to demonstrate one of the most pronounced solar‑driven pricing patterns in the National Electricity Market (NEM). At the same time, global fuel cost pressure, rising evening cooling demand, and local network dynamics are shaping volatility in peak intervals.
The biggest theme this month has been how strong solar generation, grid constraints, and demand patterns interact as the season transitions from summer into early autumn.
Daytime Solar and Price Suppression
High rooftop and utility‑scale solar output has once again kept daytime wholesale prices very low throughout March, with many intervals between late morning and mid‑afternoon trading at levels significantly below typical evening pricing. This has reinforced the value of shifting energy‑intensive activities into daylight hours, particularly for businesses in manufacturing, refrigeration, pumping, or similar operations.
Many Queensland energy users with flexible load profiles have continued to see tangible cost benefits from making use of low‑cost solar intervals.
Evening Peaks and System Dynamics
Queensland’s market continues to reflect a strong “duck curve” pattern, very low prices during high solar output, followed by sharp price increases as solar exits the system. In March:
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The fall in solar output around late afternoon has coincided with still‑elevated cooling and industrial demand, driving noticeable price spikes between 5 pm and 9 pm.
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Local network constraints around key corridors (particularly in south‑east Queensland) have further intensified evening pricing pressure during periods of heavy demand.
While these price peaks have generally been short‑lived, they remain material for businesses that cannot shift load away from peak intervals.
Futures Pricing
Forward electricity prices in Queensland have levelled out in March after trending lower late last year. Prices for the second half of 2026 are now relatively stable, suggesting the market may have found a post‑summer floor.
However, March traditionally marks the beginning of seasonal upward price pressure, as:
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Solar output naturally tapers with shorter daylight hours
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Scheduled generator maintenance increases
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Reserve margins tighten approaching winter
This makes March a strategic window for businesses with expiring contracts to engage the market before seasonal factors begin to push prices higher.
Based on the tenders we have been receiving recently, retailers are being more selective in which contracts they choose to bid on. Engaging early and providing complete information helps businesses secure more competitive options and reduce procurement risk.
what it means for your business
The main cost pressure in Queensland continues to come from evening peak periods when solar output drops but demand remains high. Daytime pricing remains attractive, offering opportunities for businesses that can shift energy‑intensive operations into daylight hours.
At the same time, the growing presence of battery storage and large-scale renewables is reshaping the market: daytime energy is increasingly cheaper, while evening energy carries a higher premium.
By aligning operations, tariffs, and procurement timing with these patterns, and exploring strategies like load shifting, demand response, or battery storage, businesses can better manage energy costs and reduce exposure to peak pricing in 2026.
If your business is unsure whether it is positioned correctly for summer, we can help. Contact us for a free bill check or to discuss a tailored energy procurement plan.
QLD ELECTRICITY FUTURE PRICING CHARt
Queensland DMO Signals Falling Electricity Costs
In March, the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) released draft Default Market Offer (DMO) pricing for Queensland, effective from 1 July 2026. While the DMO itself only applies to residential and small business customers on standing offers, the draft showed notable reductions in regulated price caps, reflecting lower wholesale costs, a growing share of renewable generation, and changes in network and retail components.
Although large commercial and industrial users are not directly affected, the update is a useful market signal, as the same factors influencing the DMO also shape forward contract prices in the unregulated market. The March draft clearly indicated softer pricing compared with previous periods, confirming that the broader wholesale market is under downward pressure and highlighting an opportunity for large users to capture cost savings through proactive procurement and strategic contract timing.
impact for businesses
For large commercial and industrial energy users, the DMO is not directly applicable, but it provides a clear indicator of broader market trends. The same underlying factors that are driving the DMO reductions, lower wholesale costs, stronger renewable output, and competitive retail dynamics, also influence forward contract pricing for unregulated large users. This confirms that the market is softening, creating a favourable environment for businesses that actively review contracts, re-test the market, and align procurement strategies with current wholesale conditions.
Overall, the March DMO draft highlights both the direction of wholesale pricing in Queensland and the opportunity for large energy users to capture cost savings through proactive contract management.
Queensland Coal Generators Hit by Record Number of Outages
In March, a new Reliability Watch report showed that Queensland’s coal‑fired power stations suffered a high number of breakdowns and outages over the 2025–26 summer period, raising concerns about generation reliability and its implications for wholesale market behaviour.
The report found that between October 2025 and February 2026, coal stations in Queensland recorded around 52 total outages, including 47 unplanned breakdowns, as a result of both unexpected unit failures and maintenance overruns. Over the same period, a significant portion of coal capacity was offline at times, contributing to instances where around one‑quarter of coal‑fired output was unavailable on average across the National Electricity Market, including Queensland.
These outages were compounded by maintenance schedules that frequently extended beyond planned durations, putting further strain on available generation capacity.
The high frequency and scale of these outages show that many of Queensland’s ageing coal plants are struggling to deliver reliable output during peak periods, forcing the market to rely on higher‑cost generation such as gas or imports, which drives price volatility.
Beyond immediate pricing effects, the outages underline structural challenges in Queensland’s generation mix. While renewables help dampen some spikes, the ageing coal fleet underscores the need for firming capacity like batteries and other dispatchable technologies.
Queensland Energy Roadmap Drives Economic Growth
In March, broader analysis of the Queensland Energy Roadmap continued to highlight its potential economic benefits alongside its energy objectives. The Roadmap, which sets out a framework for driving significant investment in electricity infrastructure, including generation, storage, and transmission, is projected to have substantial positive effects on the Queensland economy, particularly as it supports growth in regions beyond the southeast.
According to official government modelling, the associated Energy Plan embedded in the Roadmap could drive up to $23.2 billion of direct investment in the state’s energy infrastructure and contribute up to $25.7 billion to gross state product and $25.1 billion in gross state income over its implementation period.
The modelling also suggested that these investments would help attract regional jobs and industry activity, especially where infrastructure works intersect with transport, accommodation, and local services, helping boost economic activity in both regional Queensland and major urban centres.
impact for businesses
Beyond direct investment, the Roadmap intends to reduce the cost base for businesses and consumers by supporting a lower‑cost, lower‑emissions electricity system. Lower electricity costs can improve the competitiveness of energy‑intensive industries and attract new commercial investment into Queensland, potentially giving local firms a “green premium” in export markets and broadening opportunities for industries that rely on reliable, affordable power.
