nsw MARKET UPDATE
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Electricity Prices
In November 2025, we observed milder late-spring conditions in New South Wales, with strong daytime solar generation continuing to ease demand during daylight hours. However, the market remained sensitive to supply shifts, particularly when wind output eased or transmission works restricted network flows. While overall wholesale prices tracked lower than earlier in the year, evening volatility persisted as solar generation tapered off after sunset, tightening supply during peak demand periods.
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Generation Mix
Across November, NSW’s generation mix was again heavily supported by strong daytime solar output, with rooftop systems delivering some of the highest spring generation levels this year. This kept daytime prices low, although wind generation was inconsistent, creating occasional tight supply periods when conditions were calm.
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Several key factors shaped November’s generation outcomes:
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Stronger solar performance: High rooftop solar output continued to push down daytime demand and soften prices.
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Variable wind conditions: Early November saw several low-wind days that lifted prices briefly, followed by stronger wind generation later in the month that helped stabilise supply.
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Thermal generator activity: Coal plants remained stable overall, though short maintenance windows and deratings tightened supply during some evenings. Gas generation increased during these periods to support peak demand.
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Interstate flows: NSW imported more electricity from Victoria during low-renewable periods and exported excess solar during mild midday conditions.
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Reduced transmission constraints: Network works continued, but fewer binding constraints were observed compared with previous months.
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Battery contribution: The Waratah Super Battery and other distributed systems discharged more frequently during evening peaks, helping smooth volatility as the state approached summer.
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Overall, these factors combined to deliver generally steady daytime conditions, with most volatility occurring in the evenings when solar output tapered and wind conditions weakened.
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Futures Pricing outlook
Forward electricity prices for NSW in November remained steady, continuing the stabilising trend we observed through spring.
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Base futures eased slightly, around 2–3%, as expectations of strong renewable output and stable supply conditions carried through the month.
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Peak and shoulder contracts remained firm for Q1 2026, reflecting the market’s pricing of summer demand risk, potential heatwave conditions, and the possibility of generator outages.
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Spot prices continued to show evening sensitivity, with occasional spikes above $250/MWh during tight supply conditions when wind output was low and solar had tapered.
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Overall, futures indicate a cautiously stable outlook, though uncertainties remain tied to summer weather patterns, renewable variability, and the timing of major network and generation upgrades.
What it means for your business
We are seeing NSW energy costs stabilising, but exposure to evening peaks remains a key consideration, especially for businesses with higher consumption late in the day or overnight.
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With futures softening and wholesale markets showing improved balance, this is an opportune time to review your electricity contracts. Acting before summer demand intensifies can help lock in stronger pricing outcomes and reduce exposure to volatility.
If your business does not yet have a strategy in place, we can help.
Contact us for a free bill check or to discuss a tailored procurement plan that aligns with your operational needs and risk profile.
nsw ELECTRICITY FUTURE PRICING CHARt​
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On 20 November 2025, Ausgrid, Endeavour Energy, and Essential Energy jointly released the first-ever New South Wales Distribution System Plan (DSP). This landmark initiative represents a unified approach to managing the state’s electricity distribution networks, optimising existing infrastructure, and planning for future energy needs. Independent modelling indicates the DSP could unlock billions in value by making better use of current network capacity and integrating consumer energy resources such as rooftop solar, batteries, and electric vehicles.
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The plan highlights a shift in network planning from purely building new assets to leveraging distributed energy resources (DERs) to meet demand efficiently. By actively coordinating rooftop solar, storage, and flexible load, the distributors aim to reduce peak congestion, defer costly network upgrades, and improve overall system reliability. This approach also provides a clearer pathway for integrating emerging technologies and accelerating the energy transition across NSW.
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WHAT this means for businesses
For commercial and industrial energy users, the DSP opens several opportunities. Businesses with rooftop solar, on-site storage, or electric vehicle fleets may benefit from greater network flexibility and potential incentives to participate in demand response programs. By optimising energy use during peak periods, companies can reduce network charges and manage electricity costs more effectively.
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The plan also emphasises the importance of strategic energy planning. Businesses that proactively engage with the DSP framework, through monitoring, optimisation, and participation in distributed energy programs, can better manage exposure to peak pricing, support grid reliability, and potentially access new revenue streams for providing flexibility to the network.​
On 12 November 2025, the NSW Social Programs for Energy (SP4E) Code version 8.3 was published, providing updated rules for energy retailers to deliver state and federal energy rebate programs. This includes programs such as Energy Accounts Payment Assistance (EAPA) and the National Energy Bill Relief scheme for the 2025–26 financial year. The code ensures consistency in program delivery across NSW, strengthens compliance requirements, and clarifies retailer obligations when administering subsidies and rebates to eligible households.
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The updated code reflects a continued focus on supporting vulnerable energy consumers while improving transparency and reporting standards for retailers. By standardising the approach, NSW regulators aim to make rebate distribution more efficient and equitable, helping households manage rising energy costs during peak demand periods and seasonal price fluctuations.
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WHAT this means for businesses
Retailers and energy providers must ensure billing and customer support align with the updated code to remain compliant. For other businesses, awareness of these programs helps plan for demand shifts, supports CSR and ESG initiatives, and ensures engagement with energy assistance programs is effective and responsible.
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Staying informed on these updates helps businesses reduce compliance risk and respond proactively to changes affecting energy costs and rebate delivery.
NSW Government Expands EV Charging Across the State
The NSW government has unveiled a major rollout of public electric vehicle (EV) chargers across regional areas and along key tourism corridors. This initiative aims to create a reliable and widely accessible charging network, reduce “range anxiety” for EV drivers, and encourage the transition from petrol and diesel vehicles. By supporting sustainable travel, the rollout also aims to strengthen regional economies by making it easier for visitors and locals to access towns, attractions, and services.
WHAT this means for businesses
The expanded EV network presents significant opportunities for a range of businesses across NSW:
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Tourism and hospitality operators can attract EV-driving customers by ensuring they have access to convenient charging facilities, potentially increasing visitation and dwell time.
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Retailers and commercial property owners can offer charging as an added service, enhancing customer experience and drawing more foot traffic.
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Fleet operators in sectors like logistics, delivery, and service industries can plan for smoother EV adoption, reduce fuel costs, and integrate on-site charging to optimise operations.
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Regional businesses benefit indirectly through increased accessibility and visitation along major routes, supporting broader economic activity.
Updated PDRS Rules Aim to Strengthen Summer Electricity Reliability
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) recently announced updates to the rules governing the Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS), with a focus on ensuring dependable demand reduction during peak summer periods. These changes aim to enhance grid reliability by improving the predictability and effectiveness of demand reduction programs, helping to balance supply and avoid extreme price spikes when electricity demand is highest.
WHAT this means for businesses
The updated PDRS rules create both opportunities and considerations for businesses with flexible energy consumption:
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Participation incentives: Companies able to reduce or shift load during peak periods may benefit from financial incentives or rebates for contributing to grid stability.
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Cost management: By participating in demand reduction programs, businesses can reduce exposure to high summer spot prices, improving energy cost predictability.
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Operational planning: Businesses with flexible operations, on-site storage, or controllable loads can optimise consumption schedules to align with peak reduction windows, turning energy management into a strategic advantage.
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Sustainability benefits: Active engagement with the PDRS supports corporate ESG goals, demonstrating a commitment to reducing emissions during high-demand periods.
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We can help businesses monitor their energy usage, identify opportunities to participate in PDRS, and optimise demand reduction strategies to reduce costs and maximise incentives. By working with us, companies can navigate the rule changes, improve operational efficiency, and strengthen their contribution to grid reliability during summer.
Funding Secured to Transform Hunter Coal Sites into Net-Zero Hubs
On 20 November 2025, the federal and NSW governments announced a finalised funding agreement to develop master plans for repurposing two major mine sites in the Hunter region, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Glencore’s Macquarie Coal, into sustainable assets supporting a net-zero economy. The initiative will create new economic activity, infrastructure, and renewable energy projects in the region, with potential implications for electricity demand and market conditions.
WHAT this means for businesses
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Changing demand patterns: As mining sites are repurposed for renewable or industrial use, local electricity demand may fluctuate, affecting load profiles for nearby businesses.
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Potential contract opportunities: Businesses with flexible energy procurement arrangements may benefit from opportunities to renegotiate supply agreements or participate in demand response programs as new industrial or renewable loads come online.
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Price volatility considerations: New large-scale energy users or renewable projects in the Hunter region could influence wholesale prices in the local network, particularly if they alter peak demand timing. Forward-looking businesses may consider locking in rates or adjusting contract structures to manage exposure.
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Sustainability alignment: Companies seeking to enhance ESG performance may use this transition to align energy sourcing with renewable generation, potentially integrating renewable PPA opportunities into contracts.
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By monitoring market conditions and adjusting procurement strategies, businesses can reduce exposure to volatility and position themselves to take advantage of emerging opportunities in the Hunter region.
