Electricity Prices

In October 2025, New South Wales experienced milder spring conditions, with warmer daytime temperatures and steady solar generation helping to ease electricity demand compared to winter peaks. However, the state’s electricity market remained sensitive to supply fluctuations, with intermittent wind generation and ongoing transmission works occasionally tightening supply. While wholesale prices were generally lower than in previous months, evening peaks persisted as solar output dropped off after sunset, maintaining some volatility across the month.

​​

​

Generation Mix

In October 2025, New South Wales’ electricity generation came from a diverse mix of coal, gas, wind, solar, and hydro, with renewables contributing around 38–42% of total supply.

​

Several key factors shaped the month’s generation and pricing outcomes:

​

• Coal and gas availability: Coal-fired generators such as Eraring, Bayswater, and Vales Point continued to supply the bulk of NSW’s base load, though intermittent maintenance and reduced operating flexibility constrained some output.

​

• Yallourn outage impact: The ongoing outage at Victoria’s Yallourn Power Station Unit 2, still expected to last until December, indirectly affected NSW by tightening supply and pushing up interregional flows and evening prices.

​

• Variable renewable generation: Wind and solar performance fluctuated throughout the month, with lower-than-average wind conditions in early October followed by a late-month recovery that helped moderate prices.

​

• Network and interconnector constraints: Transmission upgrades, including work associated with Project EnergyConnect, continued to restrict transfer capacity at times, influencing price divergence with neighbouring states.

​

• Storage support: The Waratah Super Battery and distributed battery systems across the state continued to provide vital grid support, charging during low-cost solar periods and discharging during peak demand, to smooth volatility and prevent more severe price spikes.

​​

​

Futures Pricing outlook

Forward electricity prices for New South Wales in October 2025 were relatively steady, showing less volatility than in previous months:

​

• Base futures prices edged down by around 2.5%, reflecting improved renewable output and stable short-term supply conditions.

• Peak and shoulder contracts remained firm, particularly for Q1 2026 delivery, as markets priced in the risk of high summer demand and potential generator outages.

• Evening peaks persisted due to the solar drop-off after sunset, with wholesale spot prices occasionally surging above $250/MWh during short supply periods.

​

Overall, the futures market suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook, prices are stabilising, but uncertainty remains tied to weather variability, summer demand, and the timing of major transmission and generation projects.

​​​​

 

What it means for your business

Energy costs in New South Wales are steadying but remain sensitive to shifts in renewable generation and network availability. Businesses with significant evening or overnight energy usage, should continue to manage exposure to peak prices.

​

With wholesale markets showing signs of balance and forward pricing trending lower, now is an opportune time to review your energy contracts. Taking a proactive approach before summer demand intensifies could help secure more favourable rates and reduce exposure to future volatility.

​

If your business does not yet have a strategy in place, we are here to help. Contact us for a free bill check or to discuss a tailored energy procurement plan.