Trans Tasman Energy Group

November 2025 marked another strong month for renewable generation across the National Electricity Market (NEM), with both rooftop solar and large-scale solar delivering consistently high output. This continued growth in daytime renewable supply kept wholesale prices comparatively subdued relative to winter, although evening volatility persisted as solar output tapered and demand increased. Battery storage again played an expanding role in firming supply and shifting energy into higher-priced periods, even as some ancillary service revenues moderated—further reinforcing the importance of storage in a grid increasingly driven by variable renewables.

Forward contract markets saw some meaningful downward movement through the month, supported by firm east-coast gas storage levels, stable-to-soft gas netback pricing, and expectations of robust renewable generation heading into summer. However, the market maintained a layer of caution due to weather variability, potential generator outages, and ongoing review of Wholesale Market Settings, which may influence future investment signals for storage and firming assets.

Overall, futures pricing remained largely stable to lower across most NEM regions, reflecting a market that continues to adjust to rising renewable penetration and increasingly flexible storage resources. While supply-demand conditions are generally well-balanced, managing periods of low renewable output—particularly during evening peaks—remains a key operational and pricing challenge as the warmer months progress.

Wholesale Spot Market Overview

Across November, a clear separation remained between low daytime prices and elevated evening peaks, particularly during warm days:

New South Wales: Average wholesale prices remained relatively stable compared with October, supported by strong rooftop and utility solar generation. Despite this, the state continued to experience sharp evening price spikes, often exceeding twice the daily average, as solar output declined and transmission constraints limited imports during peak hours. These short-lived surges highlight ongoing challenges in meeting evening demand.

Victoria: Victoria’s wholesale market remained relatively steady, with strong solar and a consistent wind month moderating prices during daylight hours. Intermittent wind output during cooler evenings drove reliance on thermal generators, creating occasional peaks. The ongoing Yallourn Unit 2 outage still restricted evening dispatchable capacity, though renewable availability helped keep overall volatility lower than earlier in the year.

Queensland: Queensland again displayed the most pronounced “duck curve” in the NEM. Daytime prices frequently hovered near the market floor due to abundant rooftop and utility solar. Once solar dropped away, warmer conditions and high air-conditioning load drove sharp evening ramps. These post-sunset spikes remained a key risk factor for businesses operating through late afternoon and evening periods.

South Australia: South Australia recorded some of the lowest daytime prices in the NEM, with frequent negative pricing thanks to strong rooftop and utility-scale renewables. Volatility increased when wind output eased, causing rapid transitions to higher evening prices, often supported by imports from Victoria. These fluctuations highlight SA’s continued reliance on storage and interconnection to manage supply-balancing challenges.

Western Australia: Western Australia market continued to show low daytime pricing driven by strong solar penetration. However, the evening transition remained challenging due to limited post-sunset renewable output and high demand. Several warmer days produced noticeable evening peaks, reinforcing the need for additional storage and firming capacity as solar continues to grow.

Futures Market Overview

As at late November 2025, ASX Energy futures showed steady or softer pricing trends across most NEM regions:

New South Wales: Futures prices fell by around 2.8%, reflecting expectations of moderate wholesale costs and improved renewable availability.

Victoria: Prices eased by roughly 3%, supported by abundant solar and consistent wind generation.

Queensland: Futures hovered close to flat, with only marginal upward movement heading into summer.

South Australia: Prices fell around 3–4%, consistent with high renewable availability.

Western Australia: Futures remained comparatively elevated due to sustained evening volatility and limited after-dark renewable generation.

Overall, the market continued to price in stable conditions but maintained a premium for peak periods in recognition of the value of dispatchable capacity (the ability of an energy source to be turned on or off, or have its output adjusted, on demand to meet the electricity grid's needs, especially during peak demand or when other sources are unavailable).

Generation Mix

November’s generation profile was once again led by renewable sources, with rooftop solar providing substantial daytime supply across the market. Fluctuating wind output, combined with scheduled maintenance impacting key coal and gas units, continued to influence short-term pricing movements in several regions.

New South Wales: Thermal generators provided reliable support, with occasional network constraints driving short bursts of volatility.

Victoria: Ongoing maintenance at Yallourn reduced available thermal capacity, while strong solar and wind kept daytime supply high.

Queensland: Solar remained a major contributor, though the ongoing Gladstone Unit 4 outage limited coal-fired capability.

South Australia: Wind variability continued to shape price outcomes, ranging from deep negative prices to steep evening peaks.

Western Australia: Maintenance at Collie Unit 3 early in the month combined with variable wind output to create shifts in available capacity.

TTEG Recommendations

With November delivering stable pricing and firmer market conditions ahead of summer, this is a strong time for businesses to review their energy strategy. The current environment offers an opportunity to assess whether existing contracts remain competitive and whether adjustments could reduce exposure to evening price volatility.

Even as daytime prices stay subdued, the sharp peaks occurring at sunset continue to pose cost risks for businesses with heavy evening usage. Exploring fixed-rate or blended procurement arrangements may help mitigate potential cost increases as temperatures rise and demand strengthens.

With forward prices signalling a relatively balanced outlook and summer demand approaching, acting now can secure favourable pricing before market pressure intensifies.

If you are unsure of your current position or do not yet have a strategy in place, we are here to help. Contact us for a free bill check or to discuss a tailored energy procurement plan.

ELECTRICITY FUTURE PRICING CHARTS

National Guarantee of Origin (GO) Scheme Launched

On 3 November 2025, the national Guarantee of Origin (GO) Scheme was officially launched, establishing a voluntary certification framework for renewable electricity and low-emissions products such as green hydrogen. The scheme is designed to provide a transparent, standardised method to verify the renewable or low-emission credentials of energy products, giving both producers and consumers confidence in the origin of the electricity or fuel they buy.

The GO Scheme enables energy retailers, generators, and corporate buyers to demonstrate compliance with renewable energy targets, ESG commitments, or sustainability reporting standards. Certificates issued under the scheme can be traded separately from the physical electricity, allowing for greater flexibility and market efficiency.

WHAT does this mean for businesses

The launch of the GO Scheme provides a clear pathway to increase transparency and credibility in energy procurement, allowing companies to rely on a nationally recognised certification to verify the renewable or low-emission origin of their electricity.

It also offers greater flexibility, as businesses can purchase GOs separately from their physical electricity supply, enabling tailored renewable strategies without the need to alter existing contracts.

Large energy users can actively engage in renewable energy markets, investing in GOs to offset emissions or support low-emission projects, while early adoption of certified renewable electricity can enhance corporate reputation, satisfy stakeholder expectations, and strengthen commitments to net-zero targets.

New Federal Energy Policy

On 13 November 2025, the federal Coalition announced its new energy policy, which notably includes scrapping Australia’s net-zero 2050 target. The policy refocuses the objectives of the market operator on reducing consumer power prices, while supporting the continued operation of existing coal-fired power stations and exploring the development of nuclear energy. The announcement signals a shift in government priorities away from emissions reduction toward energy affordability and supply reliability, emphasising a mix of legacy thermal generation and potential new nuclear capacity.

WHAT does this mean for businesses

This policy shift introduces both challenges and opportunities. In the short term, the continued support for coal-fired generation may provide some stability to wholesale prices and reduce exposure to sharp price spikes caused by renewable intermittency. However, the removal of the net-zero target could slow investment in new renewable and storage projects, potentially limiting long-term opportunities for businesses seeking to procure certified green energy or meet sustainability commitments.

Companies with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) targets or emissions reduction strategies may need to reassess their energy procurement approaches, balancing the potential cost benefits of lower near-term prices with the reputational and regulatory expectations around sustainability. At the same time, businesses could explore alternative low-emission solutions, such as green power contracts or on-site generation, to maintain progress toward decarbonisation despite the federal policy shift.

AEMO Issues Multiple Minimum System Load Alerts as Demand Drops

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) issued several notices in November highlighting Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions in South Australia and Victoria, signalling a growing risk of demand dropping too low during daylight hours, primarily due to strong rooftop solar output.

When demand falls below safe operating levels, the system becomes harder to manage, and AEMO may need to intervene by curtailing rooftop solar, adjusting generator output, or calling on additional services to stabilise the grid.

WHAT does this mean for businesses

These conditions point to increasing market volatility during solar-heavy periods and a greater likelihood of operational constraints, particularly for commercial solar customers. Large users may see more frequent market interventions that affect spot prices, sometimes leading to very low or even negative daytime prices, followed by sharper evening peaks when solar drops off.

Businesses with on-site solar could face higher curtailment risk during spring and summer, reducing self-generation benefits, while those exposed to wholesale pricing may need to review hedging strategies or consider load-shifting opportunities.

Overall, rising MSL events highlight the need for businesses to stay proactive in their energy management, including evaluating battery storage, flexible demand options, and contract structures that mitigate the emerging risks of a solar-heavy grid.

Billing & Data Accuracy at Risk: AEMO’s Settlement System Warning

During November, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) issued several notices regarding a continuing technical issue within its market settlements system. While this issue did not affect the physical supply of electricity, it did impact the systems responsible for verifying market transactions and ensuring accurate financial settlements between generators, retailers, and large energy users.

This has created uncertainty around the timing and accuracy of settlement data, which directly affects billing, reconciliation, and cost verification. For businesses, especially those with large or multi-site portfolios, this increases the likelihood of delayed invoices, incorrect charges, or meter data discrepancies that may require retrospective corrections. Complex tariff structures, flexible procurement arrangements, and demand-response participation are particularly vulnerable to errors during periods of unsettled data.

WHAT does this mean for businesses

Staying on top of settlement accuracy is essential, and this is where we can assist. TTEG can monitor your billing, validate metering data, and identify anomalies early, reducing financial risk and ensuring you are not exposed to avoidable costs. Our team works directly with retailers, metering providers, and network operators to resolve issues quickly and provide clarity when settlement data becomes unclear or inconsistent.

While AEMO continues work to resolve the system issue, businesses that maintain close oversight, supported by expert monitoring and verification, will be best positioned to avoid errors and ensure bills remain accurate.

Renewables Overtake Fossil Fuels in the NEM for the First Time

For the first time in the history of the National Electricity Market (NEM), renewable energy generated more electricity than fossil fuels during October 2025, a milestone formally highlighted in November reporting. This shift was driven by exceptionally strong rooftop solar, expanding utility-scale solar, and consistent wind generation, supported by milder seasonal demand and continued growth in battery participation. Collectively, these factors pushed renewables to the forefront of the energy mix across the eastern states.

This achievement reflects the accelerating pace of Australia’s energy transition. Rooftop solar continued to deliver record daytime contributions, while large-scale wind and solar projects benefited from favourable weather patterns and improved grid performance. Battery storage also played an increasingly important role in maintaining system stability and smoothing price fluctuations, reinforcing the growing reliability of renewable-dominated supply.

WHAT does this mean for businesses

This turning point carries several important implications. With renewable penetration increasing, daytime wholesale prices are likely to remain lower and more stable, particularly in regions with strong rooftop solar output. However, the contrast between low daytime prices and sharper evening peaks may intensify, meaning businesses with high after-hours demand should continue to manage exposure to volatile periods. The milestone also signals a long-term trend towards greater availability of renewable-backed contracting options, offering businesses more opportunities to secure competitive, low-emission electricity deals.

In addition, this shift strengthens the value of sustainability commitments. Companies sourcing renewable electricity, either through power purchase agreements, renewable energy certificates, or the new national Guarantee of Origin Scheme, can leverage this market transformation to enhance ESG reporting and demonstrate alignment with Australia’s broader decarbonisation trajectory.

As renewables increasingly shape the market landscape, businesses that proactively review their procurement strategies, consumption patterns, and risk exposure will be best placed to capture savings, reduce emissions, and stay ahead of evolving market dynamics.

Gas market update

East Coast Gas Market: Prices Remain Volatile Despite Policy Action

November 2025 has seen continued volatility in east coast gas prices, with average spot prices remaining elevated from the mild spring period due to ongoing market uncertainty and a strong focus on future supply and policy. Prices averaged around $14-$16/GJ in southern states, with spikes observed during peak demand, reflecting a market grappling with structural risks despite sufficient immediate supply.

While government intervention via the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) has been avoided, policy debates continue to dominate the landscape, with significant implications for business planning.

Federal Policy Debate Dominates Domestic Supply Outlook

The national gas market outlook in November was heavily influenced by the release of the Coalition's new energy policy, which promises to maintain existing coal and gas infrastructure and remove net-zero targets. This political development creates a significant point of difference with existing government policy and adds an extra layer of uncertainty to long-term investment and supply forecasts.

Key points:

Policy Divergence: The federal Coalition's stance on gas as a long-term firming solution contrasts with the current government's push for electrification and renewables, creating a complex future for market participants.

Ongoing Review: The independent Gas Market Review continues its work, with its final report expected by the end of the year. The recommendations are anticipated to shape the regulatory framework for years to come.

ACCC Monitoring: The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) remains a vigilant market monitor, ready to advise the government on any potential activation of the ADGSM if domestic shortfalls are projected.

New and Emerging Infrastructure Projects

Several infrastructure initiatives are shaping supply prospects for 2026 and beyond:

Victorian Drilling: Drilling in the offshore Otway Basin continues, with the government and industry emphasising its necessity for the long-term supply of southern states, which face a projected shortfall in the coming years.

WA Policy Update: The Western Australian government published an updated WA Domestic Gas Statement to improve transparency and provide data on expected domestic supply over the next three years.

Infrastructure Delays: Concerns persist around delays in new transmission and firming capacity projects across the NEM, which could continue to place upward pressure on gas-fired generation demand during peak electricity periods.

Regulatory and Policy Updates

Beyond the overarching policy debate, AEMO and other bodies highlighted ongoing market monitoring in November 2025:

Market Monitoring: The ACCC and AEMO have highlighted ongoing domestic market monitoring to ensure winter preparedness for 2026.

Data and Statistics: The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the September 2025 Australian Petroleum Statistics on November 17, providing updated data on gas production, consumption, and trade for market analysis.

Market Rules in WA: Energy Policy WA is seeking feedback on new Electricity System and Market (ESM) rules, which will formalize the state's transition to a broader energy market, including gas.

Implications for Businesses

The November 2025 gas market is defined by a delicate balance between sufficient immediate supply and significant long-term uncertainty driven by policy divergence and infrastructure challenges.

For businesses with high gas exposure, this means a proactive approach to risk management is essential. While current stability windows offer opportunities to optimise contracts, the looming potential for price spikes, driven by strong LNG export dynamics and a reliance on gas for electricity generation, underscores the need for robust hedging strategies.

Staying engaged with regulatory changes and planning for the long-term energy transition remains paramount for securing a stable and cost-effective energy future.