Overview

In October 2025, we observed continued strength in renewable generation across the National Electricity Market (NEM), with rooftop and utility-scale solar maintaining elevated output levels. Average wholesale prices softened from peak winter levels, but volatility remained, particularly during the evening transition as solar generation declined and demand increased. Batteries continued to play a growing role in grid balancing and price arbitrage, even as some ancillary service revenues moderated, reinforcing their importance in supporting a renewables-dominated system.

​

Forward contract prices showed only modest movement, supported by healthy gas storage, softer gas netback prices, and expectations of strong renewable output into summer. However, we continue to see risk premiums embedded in the market due to uncertainty around weather patterns, generation outages, and the potential outcomes of the Wholesale Market Settings Review, which is exploring reforms to better support storage, firming capacity, and market liquidity.

​

Overall, futures prices across most regions either eased or remained steady, reflecting a cautious but stable market sentiment. Investment in renewables and storage continues to progress, yet the challenge of managing supply during periods of low renewable output remains a central focus for the months ahead.

​

Wholesale Spot Market Overview

​

• New South Wales (NSW): Average wholesale prices in October eased slightly compared with September, supported by strong rooftop and utility solar generation. Despite this, the state continued to experience sharp evening price spikes, often exceeding twice the daily average, as solar output declined and transmission constraints limited imports during peak hours. These short-lived surges highlight ongoing challenges in meeting evening demand.

​

• Victoria (VIC): Wholesale prices remained stable through October, with strong solar and consistent wind output keeping averages lower than earlier in the year. Nevertheless, intermittent wind conditions and cooler evenings occasionally pushed prices higher for brief periods. The Yallourn Unit 2 outage continued to restrict supply during peaks, though renewable generation offset some of the impact during daylight hours.

​

• Queensland (QLD): Daytime prices frequently approached the market floor due to abundant rooftop and utility-scale solar generation. In contrast, evening periods again saw pronounced spikes, particularly on warmer days with elevated air-conditioning demand. The strong “duck curve” pattern persisted, reflecting the state’s heavy solar influence and high evening consumption.

​

• South Australia (SA): High renewable generation kept average prices among the lowest in the NEM, with frequent periods of negative pricing during daylight hours. However, when wind output eased, evening prices rose sharply, often supported by interconnector imports from Victoria. This volatility underscored South Australia’s continued dependence on storage and interconnection to manage supply balance.

​

• Western Australia (WA): Outside the NEM, Western Australia also recorded relatively low daytime wholesale prices driven by growing rooftop solar. Nonetheless, limited renewable output after sunset and strong evening demand continued to produce notable price increases. System balancing challenges remain prominent as the state navigates its growing renewable share.

​
 

Futures Market Overview

As of late October 2025, ASX Energy data showed futures prices generally softening or holding steady across most NEM regions:

​

• New South Wales: Futures prices fell by around 2.8%, reflecting expectations of moderate wholesale costs and improved renewable availability.

​

• Victoria: Futures eased by approximately 3.5%, the lowest pricing among mainland states, supported by strong renewable supply.

​

• Queensland: Futures remained effectively flat, edging up just 0.2%, with prices indicating stability ahead of summer.

​

• South Australia: Futures dropped by around 3.9%, showing further easing as renewables continue to dominate supply.

​

• Western Australia: Futures remained elevated relative to the eastern states, reflecting ongoing evening price volatility and limited post-sunset renewable output.

​

Overall, the futures market continues to price in stable near-term conditions but maintains a premium for peak evening periods, reflecting the persistent value of firming and dispatchable capacity.

​​

​

Generation Mix​​​

October’s generation mix was again dominated by renewables, particularly rooftop solar, which provided record levels of daytime output. However, variability in wind generation and planned outages across key coal and gas assets continued to influence short-term price movements.

​

• New South Wales: Stable performance from thermal generators helped moderate volatility, though occasional transmission constraints caused temporary price spikes.

​

• Victoria: Ongoing maintenance at Yallourn’s Unit 2 continued to restrict capacity, though solar and wind generation helped maintain daytime supply.

​

• Queensland: Strong solar generation persisted throughout the month, with the Gladstone Unit 4 outage still limiting coal-fired capacity.

​

• South Australia: Wind generation remained variable, leading to alternating periods of negative prices and sharp evening increases when wind output dropped.

​

• Western Australia: A temporary reduction in output from Collie Power Station Unit 3 due to maintenance limited capacity early in the month, while solar and wind provided significant daytime contributions.

​

​

TTEG Recommendations

With wholesale prices stabilising across the National Electricity Market (NEM) and futures showing limited movement in October, now is an opportune time for businesses to review their energy positions. We are seeing a period of relative calm following months of volatility, with forward prices in most regions easing slightly or holding steady. This stability provides a valuable window for energy users to assess whether their current contracts and tariff structures remain competitive.

​

While average wholesale prices are steadying, short-term spikes during evening peaks continue to create cost exposure for energy-intensive users. For businesses with consistent or high evening consumption this is an ideal time to explore fixed-rate or blended procurement options that reduce volatility risk ahead of summer demand.

​

With the market settling and forward pricing suggesting a more balanced outlook heading into summer, taking proactive steps now can help secure price certainty and position your business advantageously before conditions tighten again. Waiting too long could mean missing a favourable opportunity to lock in lower rates before seasonal demand and potential market volatility return.

​

If you are unsure of your current position or do not yet have a strategy in place, we are here to help. Contact us for a free bill check or to discuss a tailored energy procurement plan.