Leading your business through the energy market minefield

WHOLESALE MARKET UPDATE

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• Strong wholesale electricity market outcomes were seen in NSW and QLD averaging $137 / MWh and $153 / MWh respectively. In a similar theme to previous months significantly above VIC and SA ~ low $100’s/ MWh

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• Competing drivers were responsible for these pricing outcomes with a combination of low wind and plant outages resulted in the last three days of the month averaging $170 / MWh in NSW

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• Renewable impact continues to become more pronounced highlighted by the new minimum demand record in NSW with average daily maximum rooftop solar increasing by 1.5 GW and large-scale solar increasing by 35% compared to 12 months prior

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• In combination with a few outages across the states, including a Bayswater unit and a Vales Point unit, this contributed to approximately 40 minutes of volatility on March 16 in NSW and close to 1 hour total for the month.

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Following on from the backend of February, the unplanned Queensland Curtis Lquified Natural Gas (QCLNG) train outage extended until late in March. As a consequence, there was approximately 600 – 800 TJ of gas not being exported which freed up supply for the southern states and resulted in limited volumes having to flow to the northern states. Ultimately this played a key factor in wholesale gas prices across all markets in the $8-10 / GJ range until the last couple of days of the month.

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• Electricity futures prices have been extremely volatile throughout March and May with a number of up and down movements due to:

  1. NSW Labor announcement that they are considering buying Eraring Power Station to keep it running beyond 2025

  2. Brookfield made a binding agreement to buy Origin Energy, and have stated they are open to keeping Eraring Power Station open for a longer period of time

  3. Callide C coal units have stated up to a 6-month delay in their outages bringing return to service to Q4 2023

  4. Part owners of Callide C have gone into voluntary administration raising uncertainty if they will be able to honour their contracts.

  5. 28th of April was a historic day in the National Electricity Market with the final Liddell Power Station unit shutting after almost 52 years of operation and being an important cog in the nation’s energy supply

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• CAL24 contracts still see NSW as highest ($132/MWh), with VIC as low as ($85/MWh)

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• Liddell Power Station has now shut down completely at the end of April

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• Looking ahead to winter, with Liddell Power Station out and supply already restricted, the market across Q2/Q3 in NSW and QLD has shot up between $30/MWh and $50/MWh

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• Cap prices in NSW and QLD have seen large jumps, especially with QLD Q2 and Q3 caps doubling price through March. The market is expecting to see a greater amount of spot prices above $300/MWh

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• Callide C part owners going into voluntary administration has resulted in markets offsetting their positions with NSW and QLD contracts to protect against counterparties defaulting on their contracts

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• As indicated above, looking ahead to later year contracts, the market is particularly focused on Eraring Power Station and whether the closure date will be delayed. Brookfield, who are in agreement to purchase Origin Energy have not ruled out shutting Eraring Power Station down on time, which would align to their vision of a renewables future but have also indicated they are open to keeping it running if it were to guarantee market stability and security.