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ENERGY MARKET UPDATE & FUTURE PRICING
September 2022

Victorian electricity and natural gas markets are expected to remain volatile until gas storage levels return to normal and we see a significant improvement in the reliability & availability of coal-fired base load generation
AGL Energy’s 535 MW generation unit at the Loy Yang A coal-fired power station in Victoria will remain offline at least until late September this year
Whilst all generating units at Energy Australia’s coal-fired Yallourn power station have returned to service, the threat of further outages remains high due to flooding risk and the likelihood of unplanned maintenance
Earlier this month, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) requested Queensland’s 3 main LNG exporters to provide additional gas to the southern states as supply tightens. AEMO warned of a natural gas shortfall in VIC/SA until the end of September that could potentially destabilise the Victorian supply system
Also in response to the tightening gas supply, AEMO recently directed two gas-fired power plants owned by Snowy Hydro in Victoria to curtail operations until 1-Oct-22.

Electricity future pricing for VIC:

Vic

NSW

Frequent generator outages, cold weather, flooding and supply chain disruptions have continued to wreak havoc on the electricity market in NSW
Origin Energy’s 2.8 GW Eraring power station, Australia’s largest power station, continues to face supply issues—forcing them to purchase black coal at high international prices. The power station is currently generating well below its capacity as a result
Unit 4 at AGL Energy’s Liddell power station experienced an outage from May to the end of July but recently returned to service. However, all units at the power station are scheduled to be decommissioned by April 2023
AGL Energy’s Bayswater power station has experienced numerous outages over the past 2 months and is currently operating at well below its capacity

Electricity future pricing for NSW:

Queensland has experienced numerous generator outages over the past two months that nearly caused wide spread load shedding & blackouts on several occasions
Earlier last month, the Australian Energy Market Operator called for emergency generation supplies as it worked to keep the lights on
Black coal-fired power stations provide the vast majority of Queensland’s electricity, which is highly exposed to international spot prices
In addition to both planned and unplanned outages, Queensland coal fired power stations have suffered from flood-related supply issues as coal in many instances can no longer be delivered by rail but rather by truck
One of Queensland’s major generating units, Callide 4, will remain offline until April 2023 as repairs continue following the explosion in May 2021
Queensland’s biggest battery – the 100MW/150MWh Wandoan South battery – is now in full commercial operations after nearly a year of testing on the grid.

Electricity future pricing for QLD:

QLD

Since SA decommissioned its last coal-fired power station in 2016, the state has relied primarily on renewable generation and electricity imports from Victoria to meet demand. When renewable generation is low and imports from Victoria are insufficient during periods of peak demand, expensive liquid fuel peaking generation is dispatched. This has resulted in significant real-time spot price volatility that has flowed into retail energy rates.
Renewables supply between 55-65% of South Australia’s electricity needs while gas supplies between 35-45% and imports from Victoria make up the difference
Over the past few months, South Australia has experienced significant price volatility due to surging gas prices, constrained imports from Victoria and low renewable generation during evening peak periods

Electricity future pricing for SA:

Although Western Australia is experiencing a rapid uptake of rooftop solar along with a growing number of planned large scale solar and wind projects, electricity prices are steadily rising
A significant portion of coal-fired generation will exit the market starting with the staged closure of all but 2 units at Synergy’s coal-fired Muja Power Station between late 2022 and 2024
This loss of baseload capacity is already getting priced into retail offers and if history is any indication, electricity prices in WA will likely continue to rise as we get closer to the exit of coal from the market

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